Hey monkeys,
I'm sure you've all been there, a stock that you just keep tossing money at, and despite all the analysis, the models, and readings and re-readings of company financials, the market just won't agree with you. The optimist in you will justify short term share losses, "Oh, the massive drop in gold is affecting everything" or, "The manufacturing index missed expectations, but that shouldn't have hurt this particular company as much as it has" and you gleefully buy more shares that are seemingly "on sale". Then, at least for me, the pessimist shows up and the second guessing commences, "That impairment was a bigger deal then you thought" or, "The recent decrease/increase in revenue/COGS are not just a result of decreasing/increasing commodity prices, it's management and it's permanent". This is not a fun experience, nobody likes to post losses, and blows to your ego can sometimes hurt as badly, if not worse (depending on how much you have invested).
So, when faced with a situation like this, what do you do? Run back through the financials? Rebuild your models? As I'm sure you can all guess, I'm having one of these moments myself, wondering if I'm throwing good money after bad, and trying to figure out a reasonable strategy to try and figure out whether I should close a position or trust in my earlier analysis. Maybe someone here on WSO is having a similar experience with the stock I'm currently frustrated about:
Vale SA
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